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Technical
Analysis
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Technical analysis is a means by
which we can predict the future price of any asset based on historical price
movements, volume and open interest. It
is a weapon that helps investors and traders predict what might happen to
prices over a period of time. Technical analysis applies to stocks,
commodities, futures, indices, or any other trading instrument whose price is
influenced by forces...supply and demand, i.e volume.. Technical analysis
includes a combination of tools such as chart patterns, indicators, candlestick
charts.. and market structure helps an individual predict future price
movements.. Price refers to any combination of open, high, low or close for a
given security over a specific period of time.. period. The period of time for a given
security can be is any time period, such as 1 minute, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15
minutes, hourly, daily, weekly or monthly.. Fundamentals of Technical Analysis
According to Charles Dow, the The basis of technical analysis is
assumptions..
1.. All-Cut Price
2.. Price movements are not completely random
3.. What is more important is why
All-Cut Price – Technical
analysis believes that current prices fully reflect all information.. Since all
the information is already reflected in the price, it represents fair value and
will form the basis of any analysis. After all, market prices reflect the
collective knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors,
portfolio managers, buy-side analysts, sell-side, market strategist, technical analysts,
fundamentals.. technical analysts, and many others. Technical analysts use
information captured by prices to interpret what the market is saying and
understand the future.
Price movements are completely random course:
Most technical analysts agree that prices fluctuate. that there are periods
when prices do not follow the trend. If prices were always random, making money
from technical analysis would be extremely difficult. A technician believes
that it is possible to identify a trend, invest or trade based on that trend,
and make money observing it. Because technical analysis can be applied to many
different time frames, short-term and
long-term trends can be detected..
What is more important than why –
A technical analyst knows the price of everything but the value of nothing??
Technical analysts only care about two things. What is the current price?? What
is historical price volatility?? Price is the end result of the battle between
the forces of supply and demand for a company's stock.. The purpose of analysis
is to predict future price trends.. By focusing only on price, technical
analysis represents a simplistic approach. Fundamentalists wonder why the price
is what it is. For technicians, the why part of the equation is too broad and
the underlying reasons given are often highly suspect. Technicians believe that
it is not important to focus on what is best and why. Why did the price
increase?? Quite simply, more buyers (demand) than sellers (supply).
After all, the value of an asset
is simply the amount a person is willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why??
Fundamentals of Technical Analysis are
Trend Identification
Support and Resistance
Momentum and Volume
Buying and Selling Pressure
Relative Strength Pressure
The Importance of Technical Analysis is Not Just for
Stocks – Technical Analysis The algorithm can be used for any action with
historical transaction data. This includes stocks, futures, commodities, fixed
income, forex, cryptocurrencies, and more.
Focus on price – If the goal is
to predict future prices then it makes sense to focus on price movements. Price
fluctuations often occur before fundamental developments. By focusing on price
action, technicians automatically focus on the future. A technical analyst will
view accumulation periods as evidence of an impending increase in price action
and distribution periods as evidence of an impending decline.
Price Action – Many technicians use open,
high, low, and close prices to analyze price action. There is information to be
gleaned from every piece of information. Separately, these wouldn't say much. However, taken together, the opening, high,
low and closing prices reflect the forces of supply and demand.
Support and Resistance – Simple
chart analysis can help identify support and resistance levels. These are marked by periods of congestion
where price moves within a confirmed range for an extended period of time,
telling us that supply and demand forces are at a standstill. When the price
moves out of the trading range, it signals that supply or demand has begun to increase
or decrease. If the price exceeds the upper band of the trading range then the
seller wins and if the opposite happens then the buyer wins..
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